• The UN forecasts an 80% chance of a strong El Nino developing from June to August.
• El Nino is expected to exacerbate extreme weather, including droughts and hurricanes.
• Climate change intensifies the potential impacts of El Nino events.
• UN urges the world to act on climate change and transition to renewable energy.

The United Nations' World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has issued a warning about the strong likelihood of an El Nino developing between June and August 2026, predicting an 80% chance for its occurrence and a 90% chance it will last until at least November. This warming phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean is expected to significantly influence global temperature and rainfall patterns, creating increased risks of extreme weather events across the globe, according to Reuters and Channel News Asia.

The WMO has expressed that this year's El Nino could be at least moderate, if not stronger, possibly affecting weather patterns by bringing increased rainfall to southern regions of South America and parts of the United States while causing drought conditions in Australia, Central America, and parts of Asia. The agency emphasized how previous El Ninos have drastically impacted climate conditions, contributing to making 2024 the hottest year on record. "El Nino conditions will pour fuel on the fire of a warming world," said UN Secretary-General António Guterres, urging immediate climate action, according to Al Jazeera.

This anticipated event arises amid a backdrop of ongoing climate change, which has already raised global temperatures by approximately 1.3 degrees Celsius since pre-industrial times. Experts indicate that the underlying conditions of climate change will make the impacts of El Nino more severe, potentially leading to intensified droughts and heavier rainfall. Celeste Saulo, WMO chief, highlighted the connection between climate change and El Nino, affirming that although the phenomenon itself is natural, its effects are now exacerbated, as per South China Morning Post and Africanews.

The WMO has taken steps to prepare countries for the effects of El Nino, with hopes that early warning systems will assist vulnerable regions in managing climate-related risks. Existing forecasts indicate that multiple areas will experience not only higher temperatures but also a higher likelihood of significant weather disruptions throughout the El Nino's duration. For example, models predict drier than normal conditions during the critical rainy season in the Greater Horn of Africa and Southeast Asia, which could severely affect agriculture and water resources, according to Reuters and South China Morning Post.