• Oil prices are increasing as doubts about US-Iran peace talks deepen.
• Brent crude rose to $104.96 and WTI to $98.08 per barrel amid ongoing supply concerns.
• Supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz are significantly impacting global oil availability.

Oil prices have surged recently as investors express skepticism about progress in U.S.-Iran peace negotiations, with ongoing concerns about supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude futures rose by 2.3 percent to $104.96, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) increased by 1.8 percent to $98.08 a barrel. Despite these gains, both benchmarks are projected to experience weekly declines after dropping nearly 2 percent the previous Thursday, marking their lowest closes in almost two weeks, according to Indiatimes and Reuters.

A senior Iranian official has informed reporters that no agreement has been reached in ongoing negotiations, although "the gaps have narrowed." U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio acknowledged "some good signs" in the talks but firmly stated that any toll system in the Strait would be "unacceptable." This uncertainty has led to rising oil prices amidst fears that continued instability in the Middle East will lead to further supply disruptions, according to Channel News Asia and Indiatimes.

The Strait of Hormuz remains a critical channel where approximately 20 percent of global energy supplies used to pass before the conflict. Currently, about 14 million barrels per day, representing 14 percent of global oil supply, are affected, including significant exports from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the UAE, and Kuwait. The head of the UAE's state oil company, ADNOC, stated that full oil flow may not resume until the first or second quarter of 2027, even if the conflict were to halt immediately, as per Channel News Asia and Reuters.

While oil prices are forecasted to remain volatile, analysts suggest that WTI could stay within the $90 to $110 range in the coming weeks. Renewed concerns about inflation and economic growth are mounting as major OPEC+ nations are likely to agree to a modest increase in oil output during their upcoming meetings, although many producers still experience delivery disruptions associated with the ongoing Iran conflict, according to Indiatimes and Channel News Asia.