• OPEC+ plans to increase oil output by 206,000 barrels per day for May.
• Conflict in the Strait of Hormuz has severely curtailed oil exports from key producers.
• Current rise in output is largely theoretical due to ongoing geopolitical tensions.
• Crude oil prices have surged close to $120 per barrel, potentially hitting $150 if disruptions continue.
• Experts label the output hike as "academic" under current conditions.

OPEC+ has agreed to raise oil output quotas by 206,000 barrels per day for May, but this increase is largely symbolic as significant production enhancements are hampered by ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly the US-Israel war with Iran. The conflict has effectively shut down the Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil transit route, since the end of February, which has cut exports from key OPEC+ members including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, and Iraq, according to Reuters and India Times.

The decline in operational capacity has resulted in the largest oil supply disruption on record, which is estimated to have removed as many as 12 to 15 million barrels per day, accounting for up to 15% of global supply. This has driven crude prices up to near four-year highs, nearing $120 per barrel. Industry experts, including those from JPMorgan, warn that if disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz continue into mid-May, prices could reach historic highs exceeding $150 per barrel, as stated by Al Jazeera and Channel News Asia.

Officials from OPEC+ expressed concerns about the extensive damage to energy infrastructure caused by missile and drone attacks, complicating the restoration of normal operations. They indicated that it could take months to recover fully even if the conflict ends and shipping through Hormuz resumes immediately. As noted by consultancy Energy Aspects, the proposed output increase is considered "academic" as long as disruptions persist, reinforcing the view that additional barrels from OPEC+ will remain largely non-impactful while the Strait of Hormuz is closed, according to Reuters, India Times, and Channel News Asia.