• A US soldier is charged with insider trading for betting on Nicolás Maduro's capture.
• Gannon Ken Van Dyke allegedly profited over $400,000 using classified information.
• The case raises concerns about the use of prediction markets among military personnel.

A US soldier has been charged with using classified information to profit from an online betting operation tied to the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. Gannon Ken Van Dyke, 38, allegedly won more than $400,000 through bets placed on Polymarket regarding the timing and outcome of Operation Absolute Resolve, which was executed in January 2026. Federal officials revealed that Van Dyke, based at Fort Bragg in North Carolina, leveraged insider knowledge to make these financial gains, which constitutes a clear violation of laws protecting national security information, according to South China Morning Post, Al Jazeera, and BBC.

The Department of Justice has accused Van Dyke of betting on various scenarios linked to US military activities in Venezuela on multiple occasions. Between December 26, 2025, and January 3, 2026, he used his military position to gain unauthorized profits from the betting market, including betting on when Maduro would be removed from power and whether US forces would "invade" Venezuela. Justice officials emphasized that such actions represent a profound breach of trust and are illegal under federal law, as highlighted by South China Morning Post and BBC.

Charges against Van Dyke include unlawful use of confidential government information, theft of nonpublic government information, commodities fraud, wire fraud, and performing unlawful monetary transactions. Each charge could carry severe penalties, with wire fraud alone potentially resulting in 20 years in prison. The indictment reveals that Van Dyke not only participated in the planning and execution of the operation but also signed nondisclosure agreements committing to protect sensitive information, according to Al Jazeera and BBC.

The case has sparked significant discussion regarding the ethical implications of using prediction markets, especially by individuals with access to classified information. Critics are worried that allowing government officials to participate in such betting platforms could lead to further instances of insider trading, as Van Dyke's case clearly demonstrates. This incident follows a broader trend of increased availability of prediction markets in the United States, raising questions about their regulation and oversight, according to Al Jazeera and South China Morning Post.