• Jet fuel supply recovery could take months, according to IATA chief Willie Walsh.
• Oil prices fell below USD 100 per barrel after a ceasefire deal in the Hormuz Strait.
• The situation has worsened jet fuel availability for airlines in Asia, notably affecting countries like Pakistan and Vietnam.

Willie Walsh, director general of the International Air Transport Association (IATA), indicated that even if Iran reopened the Strait of Hormuz, it would take months for the jet fuel supply to recover due to ongoing disruptions in Middle East refining capacity. This remark follows a fall in oil prices below $100 per barrel after U.S. President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire contingent upon the reopening of the Strait, a critical channel for global oil trade, responsible for about a fifth of it, according to Reuters and Bangkok Post.

Walsh noted that jet fuel costs are expected to remain elevated, contrasting with anticipated declines in crude oil prices. He stated, "If it were to reopen and remain open, I think it will still take a period of months to get back to where supply needs to be given the disruption to the refining capacity in the Middle East," indicating the critical role this region plays in the supply of not only jet fuel but various refined products, according to Channel News Asia and South China Morning Post.

Asian airlines are currently facing significant operational adjustments, including cutting flights and sourcing extra fuel in response to a shortage exacerbated by geopolitical tensions. For instance, countries like Vietnam and Myanmar have experienced acute shortages, with Vietnam Airlines cutting domestic flights to conserve fuel, according to South China Morning Post.

As a response to these challenges, Walsh mentioned that if crude oil begins to flow freely again, countries like China and South Korea could potentially resume their exports of refined products. This speaks to the broader implications for the jet fuel supply chain amid heightened prices and limited availability, as further underscored by Reuters and Bangkok Post.

Industry experts estimate that the crisis in the Middle East has affected around 400,000 barrels of jet fuel production daily in the Asia-Pacific region, emphasizing the urgent need for solutions to restore supply. Walsh reiterated that, while refinery margins, known as the crack spread, could incentivize increased production, the return to pre-crisis supply levels remains uncertain. This increasing pressure on jet fuel pricing is causing concern across the airline sector, particularly as demand persists despite the ongoing challenges, according to Channel News Asia and South China Morning Post.