• Middle East oil benchmarks reach unprecedented prices due to ongoing conflict.
• Dubai crude assessed at $153.25 per barrel, surpassing previous records.
• Asian refiners face rising costs, forcing shifts towards alternative sources.
• Middle East exports to Asia drop significantly amid disrupted supply routes.

The conflict in the Middle East has caused oil prices to surge dramatically, with both Dubai and Oman crude benchmarks reaching historic highs. Cash Dubai crude was assessed at $153.25 per barrel for May-loading cargoes, marking a significant increase over last recorded prices, while the premium to swaps rose to $56 a barrel on Monday, as per reports from S&P Global Platts.

The escalating conflict has particularly impacted the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz, which has caused shipments to grind to a halt. This disruption has led to a steep decline in Middle East crude exports to Asia, falling to 11.665 million barrels per day in March, compared to nearly 19 million bpd in February. Such a reduction represents a significant decrease of approximately 32% from levels recorded in March 2025, affecting refiners reliant on these supplies.

Asian refiners are responding by either cutting their operational rates or seeking crude from alternative sources. Due to heightened prices, they are increasingly turning to crude from the Americas and Africa, where spot premiums have also surged, hitting records of around $12–15 per barrel above ICE Brent for Brazilian crude. The pressure on Asian refiners to secure affordable supplies is mounting, with many cargoes already sold.

Furthermore, sources within the refining sector have raised concerns about the integrity of oil pricing benchmarks, suggesting that they may be disconnected from actual market conditions due to thin trading stemming from the lack of other available grades. The situation has led to calls for a review of pricing methodologies used by entities like S&P Global Energy.