• India may reduce Russian oil imports after reaching a trade agreement with the U.S.
• The U.S. is seeking to lower tariffs in exchange for India's commitment to purchase more U.S. goods.
• Experts suggest that a shift to Venezuelan oil may not be straightforward due to logistical and economic challenges.
• India's reliance on cheap Russian oil may complicate efforts to switch suppliers.
• Russia's oil revenues could decline significantly if India halts its purchases.

India is reportedly contemplating a restriction on importing Russian crude oil as part of a broader trade understanding with the United States. Although no outright ban is in place, Indian refiners are expected to cease new orders for Russian oil once existing commitments are fulfilled, aligning with U.S. President Donald Trump's claims of initiating tariff relief in exchange for reduced imports from Russia. Trump's proposal includes a shift where India would increase its purchases of U.S. energy and agricultural products while decreasing reliance on Russian supplies. India’s total oil imports have recently shifted, with Russian crude accounting for less than 27.4% of total imports as concerns over energy supply arise, according to Source1, Source2, Source3, Source4, and Source5.

Despite pressures from the U.S., experts believe that India will not experience an immediate decline in Russian oil imports. Analysts indicate that Russian volumes are "locked in" for several weeks due to existing contracts, while ongoing sanctions on major Russian entities have already diminished supply levels. Recent data indicates a drop in Indian imports of Russian oil from around 1.38 million barrels per day in December, which follows an earlier peak of nearly 2 million barrels per day, emphasizing the complex dynamics of India’s oil sourcing strategy, as noted in reports by Source2, Source3, and Source5.

Amidst these developments, analysts have raised concerns regarding India's potential pivot towards Venezuelan oil, which may not be an easy transition due to operational complexities. While Venezuela holds significant oil reserves, logistical challenges and the need for specifically equipped refineries could complicate such a switch. Additionally, experts emphasize that Venezuelan crude is more expensive than Russian oil, with significant transportation costs contributing to a potentially steep increase in India's overall import bill, according to insights from Source4 and Source3.

The impact of a shift in oil purchasing behavior may severely affect Russian revenues, as India is one of its top buyers. Should Indian refiners halt their purchases completely, Moscow could face significant challenges to maintain its oil revenue streams, compelling it to lower prices to attract new buyers, with limited alternatives primarily in China. This situation underlines a precarious balance that Russia must maintain to safeguard its economy under western sanctions, as reported by Source5, Source3, and Source1.