• The New START treaty is set to expire, marking the first time there will be no formal nuclear arms control agreement between the US and Russia since the Cold War.
• China urges positive US response to Russia’s offer for a one-year extension of the treaty limits.
• Experts warn the collapse of the treaty could instigate a nuclear arms race involving the US, Russia, and China.
• Amid escalating geopolitical tensions, the absence of verification measures increases risks of miscalculation and proliferation.
• Former President Trump advocates for a new nuclear agreement that includes China, which is not inclined to participate under current conditions.

The New START treaty, the last remaining nuclear arms control agreement between the United States and Russia, is scheduled to expire imminently, raising alarms about a potential resurgence of arms racing. Signed in 2010, the treaty set limits on deployed nuclear warheads and mandated verification measures, but the ongoing war in Ukraine significantly impacted US-Russia negotiations, with Russia halting participation in inspections since early 2020 and formally suspending its involvement in treaty compliance in 2023, according to Vox and South China Morning Post.

As the deadline looms, concerns mount regarding the implications of lacking such a treaty; nuclear arsenals could rapidly expand without legal constraints. Both the US and Russia currently possess approximately 90% of the world's nuclear weapons, with Russia estimated to have around 5,459 nuclear warheads and the US roughly 5,550, according to Al Jazeera and South China Morning Post.

China has called on the US to react constructively to Russia's proposal to keep the current limits for another year. However, Beijing remains firm in its refusal to engage in trilateral negotiations until its nuclear arsenal reaches parity with the US and Russia. The disparity in capabilities is a significant factor for China, which currently has about 600 nuclear warheads but is reportedly expanding its arsenal significantly each year, according to South China Morning Post.

The potential lapse of the New START treaty poses risks not only for US-Russia relations but also on a broader global scale. Analysts suggest it could lead to an unstable multi-dimensional arms race involving the US, Russia, and China, further complicating the landscape of global nuclear governance. Without the parameters set by the treaty, the world might witness countries like the UK and France contemplating increasing their nuclear stockpiles, while others, including India and Pakistan, may also seek to enhance their capabilities, as voiced by experts in multiple analyses, including those from Al Jazeera and South China Morning Post.

The failure to maintain nuclear arms control could revert the US and Russia to a state of outright competition to enhance their nuclear arsenals. Trump's administration has signaled a willingness to renegotiate the parameters of arms control, emphasizing the inclusion of China, yet Trump’s approach has met with skepticism given ongoing disparities in nuclear capabilities, in light of historical context concerning U.S.-China relations, as noted in analyses from Vox and South China Morning Post.