• China recorded a trade surplus of $1.19 trillion in 2025.
• Exports grew 5.5% year-on-year, reaching $3.77 trillion.
• Imports saw a minor increase, totaling $2.58 trillion.
• Chinese producers diversified markets to counteract declining shipments to the U.S.
• Economists predict continued exports driving growth for 2026.

China's trade data for 2025 revealed a record trade surplus of $1.19 trillion, emphasized by a 5.5% growth in exports to $3.77 trillion. Despite the turbulent trade environment marked by renewed tensions stemming from the U.S.-China relationship, manufacturers successfully diversified their markets, shifting focus to regions such as Southeast Asia, Africa, and Latin America to counteract reduced shipments to the United States. This surplus is comparable to the GDP of notable economies, showcasing China's pivotal role in global trade dynamics, according to Reuters, South China Morning Post, and Channel News Asia.

In December 2025, China's exports surged by 6.6% compared to the previous year, exceeding projections made by financial analysts. Imports likewise grew by 5.7%, contradicting initial estimates predicting stagnation. This economic performance places China’s trade dynamics in a resilient light, even amidst ongoing political tensions with the U.S. that have historically challenged its export growth, as outlined by India Times and Reuters.

The steady growth in exports has thus far helped maintain China's economic growth rate close to its target of about 5%. However, experts remain cautious about economic imbalances attributed to heavy reliance on export-driven growth. Concerns from international financial authorities urge China to ensure a more balanced approach integrating domestic demand alongside its export activities, as highlighted by Channel News Asia and India Times.

Looking forward to 2026, economists like Jacqueline Rong of BNP Paribas anticipate that exports will continue to serve as a significant growth engine for China, projecting a trade surplus that maintains above the trillion-dollar mark. With historical expectations for lower growth rates subdued post-2025, the landscape suggests a careful balance must be struck as ongoing geopolitical tensions remain in play, according to Channel News Asia and India Times.