• Reliance Industries expects no Russian crude deliveries in January, impacting India's imports.
• Russian crude imports for India may dip below 1 million bpd due to heightened U.S. sanctions.
• U.S. President Trump warns of potential import tariffs if India continues purchasing Russian oil.
• Reliance has not received Russian shipments in the past three weeks, denying prior media reports.
• The decline in Russian oil imports follows significant sanctions from the U.S. and EU.

Reliance Industries announced that it is not expecting any Russian crude oil deliveries in January, potentially lowering India's oil imports from Russia to the lowest levels in years. The company clarified that its Jamnagar refinery has not received any shipments of Russian oil for approximately three weeks and is rejecting reports of incoming cargoes, according to Reuters and India Times.

This decision comes amidst increasing pressure from the United States, which has raised tariffs on Indian imports to 50% following the substantial purchases of Russian oil by India since the Ukraine conflict began. President Trump has warned of further potential tariffs if India maintains its reliance on Russian crude. The geopolitical landscape is complicated as India aims to negotiate a trade agreement with the U.S. while facing heavy scrutiny for its oil sources, according to Channel News Asia and Reuters.

By halting purchases of Russian oil, analysts project that India’s imports may fall below 1 million barrels per day (bpd). This reduction is significant considering that imports had previously peaked at approximately 2 million bpd in June 2022, but fell to about 1.2 million bpd in December 2022, the lowest figure in three years. Stricter sanctions imposed by both the U.S. and European Union are largely responsible for this decline, as they limit the flow of Russian oil into the Indian market, according to India Times, Channel News Asia, and Reuters.

With Reliance’s shift away from Russian purchases, it is reported that only Nayara Energy and Indian Oil Corporation are left as potential buyers of Russian crude in January. The tightening sanctions have adversely affected supply chains, making Nayara, which operates a smaller refinery, the leading candidate for Russian oil imports under current conditions, according to Channel News Asia, Reuters, and India Times.