• Venezuela's oil output is expected to rise following the US capture of President Nicolas Maduro.
• The increase in supply may pressure global oil prices lower over the long term.
• Analysts project Venezuela could potentially double its oil production with sufficient investment.
• The political situation remains uncertain, impacting investor confidence in Venezuela's oil sector.
• US oil firms may benefit from developments as Washington plans to take control of Venezuela’s oil assets.

The recent US military action resulting in the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro is projected to significantly impact the country's oil production capabilities. Analysts suggest that Venezuela could increase its crude output, which may add pressure to the global oil market and contribute to ongoing price volatility. Brent crude already demonstrated a slight decline to about US$60.54 a barrel, reflecting market adjustments to the political upheaval, according to Channel News Asia and South China Morning Post.

With Venezuela's vast oil reserves estimated at 303 billion barrels, the potential increase in production has caught the attention of global investors. If political stability ensues, analysts predict that the country could raise its output from 1.1 million to 2 million barrels per day, which would address the surplus situation observed in the oil market. Nevertheless, significant challenges remain in rebuilding the oil infrastructure, which has suffered from years of underinvestment and US sanctions, as noted by sources such as South China Morning Post and Reuters.

The volatile oil prices can be directly linked to geopolitical developments, with analysts predicting that the US efforts to manage Venezuela's oil assets might lead to a net bearish trend for oil prices. The Trump administration's strategy involves directly engaging with US oil executives to discuss boosting production, which reinforces the potential for increased supply dynamics. As a result, some analysts foresee oil prices decreasing by up to US$10 per barrel by 2030, while ongoing political instability may still pose risks to operational confidence in Venezuela's oil sector, according to Channel News Asia, South China Morning Post, and Reuters.

The potential shift in global energy dynamics suggests that while the supply from Venezuela could affect prices, the outlook remains contingent on broader geopolitical influences. Analysts from various firms, including Rystad Energy and Citi, stress that while a rise in production might alleviate some price pressures, a quick rebound remains unlikely due to the dependence on foreign investment and political stability, which has historically been volatile in the region. This complexity dictates a cautious approach from international stakeholders before making substantial commitments to Venezuelan oil resources, as highlighted by South China Morning Post and Reuters.