• Trump warns India of increased tariffs linked to Russian oil purchases.
• Current tariffs on Indian goods are already at 50% due to heavy oil imports.
• Discussions between Modi and Trump on the issue have not led to resolution.
• India's oil imports from the U.S. have surged, yet Russian crude remains significant.
• Trade experts urge India to clarify its stance on Russian oil to avoid further tariffs.

U.S. President Donald Trump has issued a stern warning to India regarding an increase in tariffs if the country does not comply with American demands to reduce its purchases of Russian oil. Trump stated, "They do trade, and we can raise tariffs on them very quickly," reflecting frustration over India's ongoing oil trade with Russia, which he perceives as undermining efforts in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Currently, Indian exports are subject to a 50% tariff, with half directly linked to these oil imports, according to Indiatimes and Reuters.

Despite these tariffs, Indian officials have maintained a firm position against U.S. trade demands, highlighting a drop in Russian oil purchases. Reports indicate that as of November 2025, India imported approximately 60 million tonnes of crude oil from Russia out of a total of 178.1 million tonnes, showcasing a decline in Russian oil as its share of total imports fell from 37.9% to 33.7% year-on-year. However, the U.S. now comprises 7.6% of India’s oil imports, a significant increase from previous years, according to SCMP and Indiatimes.

Trade discussions between the U.S. and India have seen Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Trump in direct communication, yet they have been described as inconclusive. Trump's administration doubled tariffs on Indian goods last year due to India's oil policies, with officials like Senator Lindsey Graham pushing for even stricter tariffs on nations importing Russian oil, asserting that such purchases support "Putin's war machine." Graham's proposal could impose tariffs of up to 500% on these imports, according to Reuters and SCMP.

Trade experts emphasize the need for India to adopt a clear and unambiguous strategy regarding Russian oil imports in light of ongoing tariff threats. Recent analyses suggest that India's strategic ambiguity may weaken its negotiating position. Ajay Srivastava, founder of the Global Trade Research Initiative, noted that clarity in communication around oil imports is essential, as even halting purchases may not relieve U.S. pressure, which could pivot to other areas such as agriculture and digital trade. The scrutiny surrounding India's oil imports from Russia continues, and the lack of resolution in trade discussions fuels concerns over future economic impacts, according to Indiatimes and SCMP.