• Democrat Eileen Higgins leads with 36% in the Miami mayoral race against Republican Emilio Gonzalez.
• A victory for Higgins would mark the first Democratic win in Miami in almost 30 years.
• The runoff election is seen as a critical test of voter attitudes ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.
• National figures from both parties are actively campaigning for their chosen candidates.
• The race is particularly significant in a city with a large Hispanic population that has increasingly leaned Republican.

Democrat Eileen Higgins is favored to win the Miami mayoral runoff, an election marking significant potential change in a city that has not had a Democratic mayor in nearly 30 years. In the first round, Higgins led the field with 36% of the vote, which was well ahead of Republican Emilio Gonzalez's 20%. The competitive nature of this race provides insights into the shifting political landscapes as it is viewed as a bellwether for national sentiment, especially in light of President Donald Trump's popularity in Florida, according to Reuters and The Hill and Al Jazeera.

The race is notable as it draws heavy involvement from national figures; Higgins has gained support from prominent Democrats like former U.S. Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and Senator Ruben Gallego. Conversely, Gonzalez has been endorsed by Trump, who called on Miami voters to support him. The dynamics of this mayoral race have national implications, especially as it reflects voter sentiment ahead of the 2026 midterms, according to Reuters and The Hill.

Both candidates focus on local issues while being aware of the broader national climate. Higgins, who has a significant Hispanic background, has centered her campaign on local concerns such as housing affordability and immigration policy. Conversely, Gonzalez, presenting himself as an underdog, emphasizes his commitment to repealing certain local taxes while positioning himself as someone who is tough on crime, especially regarding immigration enforcement. His campaign declares that he supports immigration interventions but frames broader enforcement as a federal responsibility, as detailed in reports from The Hill and Al Jazeera.

The Latino voting bloc, which comprises a substantial portion of the Miami-Dade County population, is crucial for both candidates. Observers note that voter trends among Latinos have shifted significantly since previous elections, reflecting a potential volatility that could impact the runoff results. Past trends have indicated that Democrats struggle to capture this demographic compared to previous years, prompting both campaigns to be particularly strategic in addressing Latino issues, as covered by Reuters and The Hill.