• A de facto partition of Gaza between Israel and Hamas control is increasingly likely.
• Trump's peace plan to end the war is effectively stalled, particularly in reconstruction efforts.
• Nearly 2 million people in Gaza are living in dire conditions amidst continued conflict.

A de facto partition of Gaza appears imminent as control remains split between Israel and Hamas, with U.S. President Donald Trump’s plan to conclude hostilities faltering. Six European officials with insights into ongoing negotiations indicated that efforts to advance the next phase of the plan have effectively stalled, suggesting that reconstruction may be confined to the areas under Israeli control. This situation threatens to entrench years of separation in the region, as Israeli military currently governs around 53% of Gaza, which includes both urban centers and agricultural regions, leaving almost all of Gaza's 2 million residents displaced, mostly residing in tent camps amid devastated cities still under Hamas dominion, according to Reuters, South China Morning Post, and India Times.

Currently, efforts to move forward from the first stage of Trump's peace framework—activated on October 10—are hindered by various obstacles. The plan envisages not only an enhanced Israeli withdrawal from designated areas but also aims to establish a transitional authority, appoint a robust multinational security force, and begin reconstruction in Gaza. However, the absence of clear timelines or mechanism for execution, coupled with Hamas's unwillingness to disarm and Israel's resistance to the involvement of the West Bank-based Palestinian Authority, casts a long shadow over its feasibility. Officials, including Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi, stress the necessity for a comprehensive approach to resolve the conflict, urging major U.S. engagement to overcome the existing deadlock, as reported by Reuters and South China Morning Post.

The implications of a partition are pronounced, with many analysts fearing a "yellow line" could become an indefinite border, solidifying the division of Gaza. The United States has prepared a draft resolution for the U.N. Security Council to provide a mandate for the multinational force and a transitional governing body, but significant reluctance persists among global powers to deploy troops if they face potential risks beyond peacekeeping, as noted by multiple diplomats speaking to Reuters, South China Morning Post, and India Times.

Drone imagery has starkly highlighted the extensive destruction in the northeastern segments of Gaza City, showcasing the devastation imposed during conflicts leading up to the ceasefire. With the de facto partition trend intensifying, nearly all displaced populations have retreated to shattered infrastructures and remnants of their communities, illustrating the humanitarian crisis exacerbated by prolonged conflict, according to Reuters and South China Morning Post.

As discussions on how to proceed with humanitarian and reconstruction efforts continue, the notion of a partition of Gaza raises significant concerns about the future of Palestinian sovereignty and aspirations for statehood. Palestinian representatives have uniformly rejected the concept of a geographical division within Gaza, stressing the necessity for unity and full sovereignty to facilitate reconstruction and long-term stability, echoing sentiments from regional officials at recent international forums, including the assertions made by Reuters, South China Morning Post, and India Times.