• Japan's LDP and Japan Innovation Party have agreed to form a coalition government.
• Sanae Takaichi is poised to become Japan's first female prime minister.
• The coalition follows the Komeito party's withdrawal from a 26-year alliance with the LDP.
• The combined seats of LDP and Japan Innovation Party are short of a majority in the Diet.
• Opposition leader Yuichiro Tamaki shows willingness to work with Takaichi on policy issues.

Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has officially formed a coalition with the Japan Innovation Party (JIP), positioning LDP leader Sanae Takaichi to potentially become Japan's first female prime minister. This agreement was reached following a phone call between Takaichi and JIP leader Hirofumi Yoshimura, as reported by state media on October 19.

This coalition marks a significant shift in Japan's political landscape, particularly after the Komeito party ended its long-term partnership with the LDP earlier this month, disrupting the status quo of Japanese politics. With both parties agreeing that Ishin lawmakers will support Takaichi in the upcoming parliamentary vote on October 20, her path to election appears assured, although she will embark on her term lacking an outright majority in the house.

The LDP currently holds 196 seats in the 465-member lower house, while the JIP adds 35, together totaling 231 seats, still two votes short of the 233 needed for a majority. This positioning underlines the fragile nature of the coalition and the potential difficulties Takaichi might face in pushing through her conservative agenda amidst a divided legislature.

Takaichi’s agenda is optimistic but complicated, especially as the country continues to struggle with economic challenges and a tarnished reputation following a corrupt funding scandal that has plagued the LDP. Nevertheless, she is seen as a strong candidate, given her connections to former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and a clear conservative policy stance, which resonates with a segment of the electorate.

Amid this political turmoil, it is noteworthy that Yuichiro Tamaki, leader of the Democratic Party for the People, has expressed a willingness to collaborate with Takaichi in policy areas that align with their mutual interests. His party holds 27 seats, further complicating coalition dynamics and indicating a potential for broader negotiations across party lines to stabilize the government.