• Indian refiners reportedly plan to reduce Russian oil imports amid U.S. tariff increases.
• President Trump claims Prime Minister Modi assured him India will stop buying Russian crude.
• Import data indicates a potential uptick in Russian oil shipments in October.
• India emphasizes energy security while managing diplomatic relationships under U.S. pressure.
• There is skepticism regarding the actual implementation of reduced imports as refiners await government directives.

Amid rising U.S. tariffs, Indian refiners are reportedly preparing to cut their imports of Russian oil by 50%, coinciding with pressure from the U.S. government to reduce reliance on Russian energy sources. This push has intensified after former President Donald Trump asserted that Prime Minister Narendra Modi had assured him that India would cease purchasing oil from Russia, a claim India’s Ministry of External Affairs has denied, stating it was unaware of any such conversation between the leaders, according to IndiaTimes and IndiaTimes.

The recent U.S. tariffs include a 50% duty on Indian goods, with 25% specifically targeting India's crude oil procurement from Russia. This strategic maneuver by the U.S. aims to deter India's financial support for Russia amidst the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, as analyzed in reports from Channel News Asia and IndiaTimes.

In October, Indian imports from Russia increased to approximately 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd), reversing a prior decline during the summer months. This rebound is believed to stem from Indian refineries working at full capacity in response to seasonal demand, even as India remains committed to diversifying its oil supply sources. The relationship with Russia, which has been bolstered by competitive pricing, makes this shift complex according to analyses by BBC and IndiaTimes.

Despite the claims of impending reductions, Indian officials have indicated that no formal directives have been issued regarding cuts to Russian imports, and current procurement remains guided by market conditions rather than direct political pressures. Previous imports have been substantial, making the transition away from Russian oil challenging due to both logistical and economic factors, as referenced by Reuters and IndiaTimes.

Looking forward, Indian refiners have acknowledged the importance of Russian crude, which remains competitively priced and accessible, while also seeking to expand their sourcing strategies without overly relying on any single supplier. The ongoing negotiations with the U.S. will likely continue to shape India's import strategy, and the outcome might dictate the future of their energy security policies, according to reports from IndiaTimes and BBC.