• Trump warns aid to Argentina hinges on Milei's electoral success.
• Argentina faces potential financial instability ahead of critical midterm elections.
• The U.S. has promised $20 billion in support but will reassess if Milei's party falters.

U.S. President Donald Trump issued a stark warning regarding Argentina's financial aid, stating that a $20 billion lifeline from the United States would be at risk if libertarian ally Javier Milei fails to secure victory in the upcoming legislative elections on October 26. "If he loses, we are not going to be generous with Argentina," Trump remarked during a meeting with Milei at the White House, echoing sentiments he has expressed about the importance of Milei's political success for further U.S. support, according to SCMP, TRT, and Al Jazeera.

Trump reiterated his support for Milei, whom he described as a "great leader," asserting, "I'm with this man because his philosophy is correct." The upcoming midterm results will be pivotal in determining whether Milei can implement his ambitious austerity and economic reform agenda or face significant legislative obstruction. Analysts believe that the elections will dictate the trajectory of Argentina's contentious economic policies, as half of the lower Chamber of Deputies and a third of the Senate are up for grabs, according to Le Monde and India Times.

As Milei navigates rising disapproval ratings and increasing economic challenges—including a currency crisis exacerbated by unsustainable financial strategies—Trump's backing has become a double-edged sword. Milei's coalition, La Libertad Avanza, is under pressure following disappointing local election performances, further adding to speculation about potential loss in the upcoming vote. Trump’s promise of economic assistance remains conditional on the political landscape supporting Milei’s reforms, as speculated by observers of Argentine politics, according to Reuters.

Market reactions have been volatile in response to Trump’s declarations, with investors now watching closely how Milei's policies resonate with voters during this electoral period. Trump's comments reflect a strategic interest in a political ally whose success could bolster U.S. financial interests in the region. The U.S. Treasury has indicated it is prepared to take exceptional measures to provide stability amid this uncertainty, suggesting a significant attempt at direct intervention in Latin American economic matters, as highlighted by Le Monde and BBC.