• IMF raises global growth forecast for 2025 to 3.2% amid stable tariff rates.
• India's GDP growth outlook for 2025 increased to 6.6%, while 2026 forecast decreased.
• Potential US-China trade tensions and Trump's tariff threats could negatively impact future growth.
• Lack of retaliation against US tariffs has contributed to better global economic conditions.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has lifted its global growth forecast for 2025 to 3.2% from an earlier estimate of 3.0%, noting that recent trade dynamics have been less detrimental compared to earlier fears. Factors contributing to this improved outlook include lower effective tariff rates and the resilient actions of the private sector, such as front-loading imports and rapid supply chain adjustments, according to Reuters and India Times.

The IMF has also stated that India's GDP growth projection has been revised upward to 6.6% for 2025, attributing this chiefly to strong economic fundamentals and effective reform policies, despite concerns over increased US tariffs. However, the forecast for 2026 has been downgraded to 6.2%, indicating challenges ahead due to the potential impacts of Trump's tariff policies, according to India Times and The Jakarta Post.

While the IMF has raised its forecast for the US economy to 2.0% growth in 2025 and 2.1% in 2026, it emphasizes caution regarding the ongoing trade relationship with China. Recent threats from President Trump, including imposing 100% tariffs on certain Chinese goods, raise concerns of a potential escalation in trade tensions which could adversely affect global economic stability, as noted by Reuters and TRT Global.

IMF officials, including Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva, highlighted that the absence of retaliatory measures from other countries against US tariffs has contributed significantly to bolstered global trade. The effective tariff rate is reportedly lower than previously estimated, enhancing economic resilience in the face of these tariff policies, according to The Jakarta Post and TRT Global.

Despite these positive revisions, the IMF cautioned that lingering uncertainties, particularly regarding trade policies and inflationary pressures, could complicate near-future growth. As trade dynamics remain fluid, careful observation of the situation is imperative, especially given the challenges posed by international trade tensions, according to India Times and TRT Global.