• The OECD projects global growth to slow slightly to 3.2% in 2025, up from earlier forecasts.
• Full impacts of the US tariff increases remain uncertain, affecting investment and consumer behavior.
• China's growth forecast has been raised to 4.9% for 2025 amid fiscal support and AI investments.
• Higher tariffs and policy uncertainties could dampen future economic growth and trade.
• US economic growth is anticipated to moderate to 1.8% in 2025 due to tariff impacts.

The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) has released its latest Economic Outlook Interim Report, projecting global growth to slow slightly to 3.2% in 2025. This is an upgrade from the 2.9% forecast made in June, reflecting better-than-expected resilience in the economy, primarily due to strong AI investment in the US and fiscal support in China, according to Reuters, Bangkok Post, and TRT Global.

Despite the optimism in forecasts, the OECD cautioned that the full impact of the US import tariff shock is yet to be felt, as businesses have been absorbing tariff costs through narrower profit margins and existing inventory buffers. The effective tariff rate has risen to an estimated 19.5%, the highest since 1933, which is expected to progressively reveal its economic effects, especially in labor markets and consumer spending choices, as reported by Channel News Asia and The Jakarta Post.

The OECD observes that "significant risks remain" for the economic outlook, warning of potential further increases in tariff rates which could stifle trade and investment. With policy uncertainties prevalent, the OECD maintains that while the global economy is poised for growth in 2025, it could slow again to 2.9% in 2026 due to the waning effects of pre-tariff inventory buildups, as pointed out by Bangkok Post and The Jakarta Post.

In terms of specific country forecasts, the OECD has raised the growth outlook for the United States to 1.8% in 2025, a revision from the previous 1.6%. However, this growth is projected to slow further to 1.5% in 2026, attributed to the continuing effects of higher tariffs on the economy, as stated by Reuters and TRT Global.

China's economic growth is expected to rise to 4.9% for this year, reflecting increased government spending and resilient export activity, though a slowdown is anticipated as the effects of fiscal policy diminish. The forecasts for the eurozone and Japan have also been upgraded, with growth projected at 1.2% and 1.1% respectively as reported by Bangkok Post and Channel News Asia.