• Russia and Belarus begin major military drills, raising NATO's alert level.
• The exercises involve plans for nuclear weapons use and simulate territorial defense.
• Poland has closed border crossings with Belarus in response to escalated tensions.

Russia and Belarus commenced their military drills, termed "Zapad 2025," on September 12, escalating tensions with NATO following an incident where Poland accused Moscow of sending attack drones through its airspace. The exercises, scheduled to run until September 16, will involve various military maneuvers, including tactics related to the use of nuclear weapons, according to reports from Reuters, SCMP, and Channel News Asia.

The drills are taking place against a backdrop of intensified military activity in Ukraine and are described by the Russian Ministry of Defence as aimed at improving the skills of military commanders and troops. However, NATO countries, particularly those sharing borders with Belarus—such as Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia—are on heightened alert, with Poland closing its borders completely, as stated by several sources including Al Jazeera and TRT Global.

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk referred to the operational period ahead as “critical days,” indicating the potential for an unprecedented level of conflict in the region since World War II. This urgency was highlighted following the earlier downing of Russian drones in Polish airspace, prompting consultations with NATO allies under Article 4, as noted by Newsweek and Channel News Asia.

The Zapad exercises are particularly significant as they are the first conducted by Russia during the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, with estimates suggesting a reduced troop presence compared to earlier iterations. Despite Belarus initially announcing 13,000 troops would participate, that number has reportedly been halved. Military analysts assert that the exercises simulate an invasion of the Suwalki corridor, a crucial NATO vulnerability, according to SCMP, Reuters, and TRT Global.

The Kremlin has attempted to downplay the threat perception, asserting that these drills are routine and not targeted against any specific country. However, NATO has activated a defensive operation known as "Eastern Sentry," signaling its preparedness in response to these military activities. This heightened tension and military posturing add to the already fraught relationship between NATO and Russia, which has been exacerbated by the recent drone incursions into Polish airspace, which are interpreted as provocations by Channel News Asia and Newsweek.