• Trump proposes tariffs up to 200% on imported pharmaceuticals.
• Experts warn of potential drug shortages and increased prices for consumers.
• Trade agreements have already introduced a 15% tariff on certain pharmaceuticals.
• Trump's tariffs may strengthen domestic manufacturing but complicate supply chains.
• Generic medications, which account for 92% of prescriptions, could be disproportionately affected.

US President Donald Trump is planning to impose steep import tariffs on pharmaceuticals, with potential levies reaching as high as 200%. This represents a significant shift in US trade policy, as imported medicines have traditionally entered the country duty-free. Recently, a trade agreement between US and European leaders established a 15% tariff rate on specific European pharmaceutical imports, with Trump signaling a more aggressive tariff policy for medications from other countries, according to Indiatimes and LA Times.

Experts have raised alarms about the potential fallout from Trump's tariffs. Industry analysts highlight that such measures could lead to higher consumer prices and create significant shortages of necessary medications, particularly generics, which constitute 92% of US retail prescriptions. Diederik Stadig, a healthcare economist, noted that "a tariff would hurt consumers most of all," emphasizing the inflationary effect on both prescription costs and insurance premiums, especially impacting low-income households and the elderly, according to Indiatimes, SCMP, and LA Times.

Trump has indicated that he would delay the implementation of these tariffs for 12 to 18 months to give pharmaceutical companies time to adjust by building inventory or relocating production to the US. However, even a smaller tariff, such as 25%, is projected to increase drug prices by 10% to 14% as existing inventories are depleted, according to analyses from LA Times and SCMP.

The ongoing transition of pharmaceutical production overseas to reduce costs has contributed to a near $150 billion trade deficit in the US last year. As the COVID-19 pandemic highlighted risks associated with reliance on international suppliers, particularly from strategic competitors like China, Trump's administration has begun exploring national security implications around pharmaceutical imports, according to LA Times and Indiatimes.

While companies like Roche and Johnson & Johnson are making substantial investments in US manufacturing, the time and costs involved in establishing new facilities pose significant challenges. Marta Wosinska from the Brookings Institution emphasizes that merely imposing tariffs is not enough to persuade pharmaceutical companies, particularly generics, to relocate without considerable government support, according to SCMP and LA Times.

Critics warn that a production pause in foreign factories has previously led to severe medication shortages, as seen with cancer treatments, indicating that current supply chains are not resilient. Jacob Jensen, a trade policy analyst, has noted that a significant portion of vital medications still relies on ingredients manufactured abroad, underscoring the challenge of fully insulating US manufacturing from tariff impacts, according to Indiatimes, SCMP, and LA Times.