• Joni Ernst plans to announce she will not seek reelection in 2026.
• Her decision adds volatility to an already competitive Iowa Senate race.
• Several Democrats have already declared their candidacy for the open seat.

Republican Senator Joni Ernst of Iowa has indicated she will reveal next week her decision not to seek reelection in 2026, according to sources familiar with her plans. This announcement is expected on Thursday, with significant implications for the upcoming Senate race in Iowa as Democrats aim for a political comeback in the state, which they haven’t won since 2008. Ernst, who has served since 2015, is known for her role in GOP leadership and was the first female combat veteran elected to Congress, having won her last campaign in 2020 by 6 points, according to CBS News and ABC News.

Senator Ernst's decision may complicate the Republican strategy as they try to maintain their majority in the Senate, particularly given her recent polling struggles against Democratic challengers. Reports indicate she is currently trailing candidates like state Sen. Zach Wahls in internal campaign polls. Many Iowa Democrats have already entered the race, setting up a competitive primary, according to Newsweek and HuffPost.

Among those vying for the Democratic nomination are state representatives and local leaders, including Jackie Norris, chairwoman of the Des Moines School Board. Ernst's departure from the race could trigger a wave of interest among Republican candidates as well. Politicians such as Rep. Ashley Hinson are eyeing the now-open seat, further heightening the stakes for both parties, as stated by Los Angeles Times and ABC News.

Ernst's political lineage began in 2014 when she was elected during the first open Senate race in decades. She gained national attention in her campaigns through striking advertisements that emphasized her unique experience as a veteran. As she prepares to step away, many in the Republican party—especially those with an interest in the Senate seat—are evaluating their next moves, as Ernst had recently courted controversy with remarks made at town halls regarding Medicaid cuts, prompting concerns among constituents, according to HuffPost and CBS News.