Credited from: SCMP
China's consumer price index (CPI) was unchanged in July compared to a year ago, marking a stability that defied earlier forecasts of a decline. This reading of 0.0% beats the anticipated drop of 0.1%, as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and supported by various economic analysts. The monthly CPI showed an increase of 0.4%, a slight improvement over June's performance, which saw a decrease of 0.1%, indicating some signs of recovery in consumer demand, according to Reuters and South China Morning Post.
However, the producer price index (PPI) saw a significant fall, dropping 3.6% year-on-year, which aligns with statistics from both the NBS and other financial experts. This decline marks a continued trend of falling producer prices for over two years, with the latest figures also missing forecasts. Economists attribute this persistent deflation to sluggish domestic demand and increasing trade uncertainties, as detailed in reports by Reuters and India Times.
Additionally, food prices experienced a notable decline, falling by 1.6% in July, following a 0.3% decrease in June. This decline in food prices, combined with a drop in consumer goods prices by 0.4%, reflects the ongoing economic strain, exacerbated by extreme weather conditions impacting the country, as mentioned in analysis from Reuters and South China Morning Post.
Despite the stable CPI, uncertainties remain high, with the trade truce with the U.S. nearing its expiry and contributing to negative market sentiments. Analysts are warning that prolonged deflation could discourage consumer spending, as households anticipate lower prices in the future, potentially stunting economic growth for the market moving forward, according to India Times and Reuters.