• UNAIDS predicts 6 million new HIV infections and 4 million AIDS-related deaths if funding is not restored by 2029.
• The organization highlights a critical funding gap, particularly due to cuts from the U.S. and other international donors.
• Progress made over decades in fighting AIDS is at risk of being reversed, impacting vulnerable populations worldwide.

The UNAIDS 2025 Global AIDS Update reveals a potential crisis in the fight against HIV/AIDS, warning that up to 6 million new infections and 4 million AIDS-related deaths could occur between 2025 and 2029 if vital funding for treatment and prevention services collapses due to recent financial disruptions, particularly from the U.S. government. "This is not just a funding gap — it’s a ticking time bomb," stated UNAIDS Executive Director Winnie Byanyima, emphasizing the dire consequences of the abrupt funding cuts that have significantly destabilized health systems globally, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, which has been hardest hit by these changes, according to aa, aljazeera, and npr.

The sharp decline in funding from the U.S., specifically cuts to the President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR), has significantly impacted HIV programs. The withdrawal of around $4 billion promised by the U.S. has led to a "systemic shock," resulting in the closure of health facilities and a drastic drop in the initiation of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) among vulnerable populations, particularly in nations like Mozambique and Nigeria. Reports indicate that in Nigeria, the number of people starting PrEP each month plummeted from 40,000 to just 6,000, amplifying the risk of HIV spread and disease progression among populations reliant on such preventive measures, as noted by africanews and allafrica.

Despite the grim outlook, some countries are actively working to plug the funding gap. South Africa, for instance, funds 77% of its AIDS response, prioritizing health budgets in anticipation of funding shortfalls from external donors. Countries like Botswana and Rwanda are reported to have increased domestic funding for their HIV responses in 2026, indicating a commitment to maintain the progress made over the past two decades. UNAIDS highlights that these efforts, while commendable, are not sufficient to replace the scale of international funding that has historically supported HIV prevention and treatment services in heavily reliant nations, according to npr and africanews.

The consequences of these funding disruptions are severe. In 2024 alone, approximately 9.2 million people living with HIV lacked access to treatment and care, with significant numbers of children being disproportionately affected. Additionally, community-led services vital for reaching marginalized populations are being defunded at alarming rates, further jeopardizing progress and leaving those most at risk without support. Experts emphasize that without robust international support and cooperation, the goal of eliminating AIDS as a public health threat by 2030 could slip further out of reach, as advocated by allafrica, aa, and africanews.

The stark reality presented by UNAIDS calls for urgent action to bridge the funding gap created by the withdrawal of key donors like the U.S. Moreover, it underscores the necessity for global solidarity in addressing this pressing health issue and the importance of removing barriers that prevent communities from accessing necessary health services. Byanyima has urged for compounded efforts to ensure that the progress made over the years is not lost, emphasizing the collective responsibility to end AIDS as a public health threat by fostering unity and commitment from all nations, according to aljazeera, npr, and africanews.