• Tensions between Thailand and Cambodia rise, affecting bilateral trade.
• Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn faces political instability following coalition member's exit.
• A cabinet reshuffle is planned amid scrutiny from judiciary over a leaked phone call.

Thailand is currently embroiled in a political crisis as tensions with neighboring Cambodia escalate, resulting in both nations implementing tit-for-tat measures that threaten bilateral trade. Notably, Cambodia has suspended all imports of Thai fuel and gas effective immediately, further straining relations between the two Southeast Asian countries. This tumultuous situation has coincided with Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra's precarious hold on power following significant backlash against her government's handling of the border dispute, which has historical roots and has previously sparked violent clashes, leading to casualties.

As political pressure mounts, Deputy Prime Minister Phumtham Wechayachai has expressed confidence that the government will navigate through this instability by executing a cabinet reshuffle aimed at redistributing ministerial positions, particularly following the departure of the Bhumjaithai Party from the coalition. This political upheaval has placed Prime Minister Paetongtarn's administration at risk, as anti-government protests are reportedly scheduled to commence as dissatisfaction with her leadership grows.

The recent turmoil escalated after an audio recording of a conversation between Paetongtarn and former Cambodian leader Hun Sen was leaked, in which Paetongtarn appeared to show subservience to Hun Sen while also disparaging a senior Thai military commander. This incident has intensified scrutiny from the judiciary, as senators are calling for an investigation into her conduct regarding the leaked phone call. Political analysts predict that this instability is likely to continue.

The Thai government's response to the escalating situation has seen military control over border crossings with Cambodia, tightening entry restrictions and further complicating trade relations. In addition to suspending oil imports, these measures include constraining cross-border supplies of essential goods and implementing stringent checks at border points, which are being utilized as a strategy to combat illegal activities, such as scam operations reportedly based in Cambodia.