• China's nuclear stockpile has grown to approximately 600 warheads, with expectations of further expansion.
• The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) notes that China adds around 100 warheads annually, posing a risk for a new arms race.
• China may achieve ICBM parity with the U.S. and Russia by the end of the decade, influencing global military strategy.
• The future of arms control is uncertain with the upcoming expiration of the New START treaty, potentially exacerbating tensions.

China’s nuclear arsenal is on an unprecedented growth trajectory, reaching an estimated 600 warheads by early 2025, a development attributed to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). The report highlights that China has been augmenting its nuclear stockpile by around 100 warheads per year since 2023, raising concerns about a revitalized arms race globally, especially given the current weakening of arms control frameworks according to SCMP, TRT Global, Dawn, and India Times.

SIPRI’s findings indicate that by January 2025, China had completed or was nearing completion of approximately 350 new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) silos. Reports suggest that the growing number of ICBMs could allow China to match the arsenal strength of either Russia or the U.S. by the decade's end, significantly altering strategic calculations among these superpowers. However, even if China’s stockpile increases to 1,500 warheads by 2035, it would still represent only a third of the respective U.S. and Russian arsenals, as reported by SCMP, TRT Global, Dawn, and India Times.

Amid these developments, there is heightened concern over the future of nuclear arms control, particularly with the expiration of the New START treaty in February 2026. Analysts predict that the absence of a new formal agreement may lead both Russia and the U.S. to expand their nuclear arsenals further, as SIPRI highlights the ongoing modernization of nuclear capabilities across all nine nuclear-armed states, including China, Russia, and the U.S. This situation underlines the prospect of a renewed nuclear arms race amid existing geopolitical tensions, as detailed by SCMP, TRT Global, Dawn, and India Times.