• The US assesses that Russia's retaliation for the Ukraine drone attack is imminent and may be multi-pronged.
• US officials expect significant use of missiles and drones in Russia's upcoming response.
• Expected targets may include critical Ukrainian government and military facilities.
• Michael Kofman predicts Russia will target Ukraine's security agency in its retaliatory measures.
• The initial Russian strikes are reported to have inflicted damage on at least 20 warplanes.

The United States believes that Russian President Vladimir Putin's threatened retaliation against Ukraine over its recent drone attack has not yet fully materialized and is poised to be a "significant, multi-pronged strike," according to US officials. The exact timing of this response remains unclear, although one source indicated it could occur within days. Another US official mentioned that the retaliation is likely to include various air capabilities, encompassing both missiles and drones, emphasizing the asymmetrical nature of the proposed attacks, which would differ from Ukraine's recent actions against Russian warplanes, according to Reuters, TRT World, The Jakarta Post, and South China Morning Post.

In the wake of prior provocations, Russia launched a barrage of missiles and drones targeting Kyiv last Friday, which it claimed was in retaliation for what they termed "terrorist acts" by Ukraine. The US maintains, however, that a more comprehensive Russian response is still forthcoming. A Western diplomatic source noted that while the retaliation might have commenced, a more intense onslaught targeting symbolic Ukrainian infrastructure might be expected to send a clear message to Kyiv, reflecting warnings from various diplomatic channels about the potential for a "huge, vicious and unrelenting" escalation, according to Reuters, TRT World, The Jakarta Post, and South China Morning Post.

Michael Kofman, a noted expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, expressed expectations that Russia might target Ukraine's domestic security agency, known as the SBU, in its response, potentially employing intermediate-range ballistic missiles. Kofman indicated that Moscow would likely focus its strikes on the SBU's headquarters and other regional intelligence installations, while also eyeing Ukrainian defense manufacturing centers. Nevertheless, he cautioned that Russia's capacity to escalate its response could be limited due to the strains on its military operations, which have been ongoing for months, according to Reuters, TRT World, The Jakarta Post, and South China Morning Post.

Ukrainian officials have revealed that last weekend's operations, termed “Spider's Web,” involved the deployment of 117 unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) launched from deep within Russian territory. The United States has concluded that approximately 20 warplanes sustained damage as a result, which aligns only partially with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's estimates. Meanwhile, the Russian government has dismissed claims of destroyed aircraft, asserting that any damage would be rectified promptly, although military sources within Russia have hinted at the potential loss of several warplanes, including those equipped for nuclear offensive capabilities. This drone operation marked a notable symbolic blow against Russian military strength, underscoring the ongoing psychological warfare permeating this conflict, according to Reuters, TRT World, The Jakarta Post, and South China Morning Post.

In a recent communication, President Putin conveyed to former US President Donald Trump the necessity for a Russian response following the drone attacks, with Trump acknowledging the situation in a subsequent public remark. He expressed concern about the escalating conflict, articulating that he had urged Putin to reconsider any impending military actions due to the potential for detrimental consequences, emphasizing, "it's probably not going to be pretty," demonstrating the high-stakes environment surrounding this ongoing conflict, according to Reuters, TRT World, The Jakarta Post, and South China Morning Post.