• China emerges as a key issue in Philippines' midterm elections.
• The Marcos administration asserts positions on maritime sovereignty against Beijing.
• Disinformation concerns involving Chinese influence in election discussions are prevalent.
• Sara Duterte's political future is jeopardized by an impeachment trial.
• Majority of voters favor candidates who advocate for Philippine sovereignty.

In the lead-up to Monday's midterm elections in the Philippines, the influence of China has become a predominant issue, with its presence felt across political rallies and voter surveys. As major political clans gear up to elect senators and local leaders, the relations with China have surfaced as a central political concern, shaping strategic discourse for President Ferdinand Marcos Jr's remaining term. At a rally in February, Marcos questioned voters, "Will we allow ourselves to return to the time when our leaders wanted us to become a province of China?" This statement implicitly criticized his predecessor Rodrigo Duterte, who fostered closer ties with China during his presidency, according to Reuters, Channel News Asia, and The Jakarta Post.

The current administration has adopted a more assertive stance concerning China's activities in the South China Sea, responding to sentiments of over 110 million voters who prefer candidates affirming Philippine sovereignty. An April survey indicated strong public support for candidates prioritizing this issue. During his rally, Marcos highlighted, "None of them were applauding China when our coast guard was being bombed with water, when our fishermen were being blocked, when their catch was stolen, and our islands seized to become part of another country," reflecting the increased voter engagement with foreign policy, according to Reuters and Channel News Asia.

Amidst this political backdrop, the impeachment trial of Sara Duterte, the current vice president and a key rival to Marcos, further complicates the electoral landscape. With charges against her including a threat to assassinate the president if her own safety were at risk, the composition of the 24-member Senate—serving as the jury in her trial—becomes vital to both her political future and the elections' outcome. An affirmation for Marcos's candidates could underpin a stronger ability for him to govern and shape the 2028 presidential race, contextualizing the critical nature of these elections, reports Reuters, Channel News Asia, and The Jakarta Post.

Moreover, the political climate is further challenged by the proliferation of disinformation, with recent reports highlighting that up to 45% of discussions about the elections on social media are influenced by inauthentic accounts. This disinformation trend has incited suspicions regarding potential interference by Chinese state-sponsored entities. While officials from China have dismissed such allegations, the narrative around foreign influence remains a contentious point as the election approaches, according to Reuters, Channel News Asia, and The Jakarta Post.