• Indonesia reports a $4.33 billion trade surplus in March, surpassing expectations.
• Strong exports to the US before imposed tariffs contributed significantly to the surplus.
• Chinese officials urge Indonesia to oppose unilateralism and strengthen trade ties.
• Bank Indonesia is likely to maintain interest rates amidst economic pressures.
• Despite US-China trade tensions, Indonesia vows to keep trading with all partners.

Indonesia has reported a significant trade surplus of $4.33 billion for March 2025, exceeding expectations and marking the largest surplus in four months. This figure stands in stark contrast to the anticipated surplus of $2.64 billion, reflecting robust exports driven largely by strong performances in palm oil and nickel exports. Economic analysts note that this surplus comes as exporters rushed to ship goods before expected US tariffs took effect, which included a proposed 32% levy on Indonesian imports.

In detail, the increases in exports were reflected in sharp sales to the United States, where shipments reached a non-oil and gas trade surplus of $1.98 billion, the highest recorded since March 2022. This was part of a broader trend that has seen Indonesia enjoying a continuous trade surplus for nearly five years, now entering its 59th consecutive month. The trade surplus has been bolstered by strong exports in categories such as footwear and electrical machinery, which have become key components of Indonesia's trade dynamics with the US.

Amid these developments, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi highlighted during a recent meeting with Indonesian counterparts that both nations should jointly oppose unilateralism and trade protectionism, particularly in light of the ongoing tensions with the United States. After the first “2+2” dialogue—marking a significant step in Indonesia-China relations—Wang reiterated the importance of maintaining regional stability and support for multilateral trade frameworks amidst geopolitical challenges.

Bank Indonesia is expected to hold interest rates at 5.75% amid concerns regarding the Indonesian rupee’s stability and the potential economic impact of US tariffs, which could slow Indonesia’s growth by approximately 0.3% to 0.5%, as highlighted by the Finance Minister. As the central bank grapples with these challenges, reports from various economists indicate a general consensus towards a cautious outlook on future rate cuts, with predictions of potential reductions later this year.

Despite the heightened tensions from US-China trade disputes, Indonesia's government remains committed to trading with a diverse array of partners, emphasizing its principles of fair and transparent trade. The Trade Ministry expressed intent to uphold these principles while ensuring that any trade relationships foster mutual respect and adherence to a rules-based trade system.