• WTO Director-General warns of substantial risks from US tariffs on Africa.
• US-China economic decoupling may worsen trade conditions for Africa.
• China-Africa trade saw a modest increase despite US tariff uncertainties.
• AGOA's potential expiration could significantly affect African economies reliant on US markets.
• Experts suggest Africa needs to strengthen intra-continental trade to mitigate risks.

The Director-General of the World Trade Organization (WTO), Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, has issued a stark warning regarding the risks posed to Africa from the temporary pause in U.S. tariffs. She noted that while this pause might alleviate immediate pressure, serious risks remain, particularly if there is a wider economic fragmentation resulting from the ongoing decoupling between the U.S. and China. The world’s merchandise trade volume is predicted to decline by 0.2 percent in 2025, contingent on current policies, which could adversely impact African economies, especially those least developed, such as Lesotho, which relies heavily on textile exports to the U.S., according to AllAfrica.

Despite facing these challenges, trade between China and Africa experienced a moderate growth of 2.7 percent in the first quarter of 2023, reaching US$72.6 billion, showcasing resilience amid U.S. tariff uncertainties. Chinese exports to Africa rose significantly, while imports decreased, indicating a mixed trading climate influenced by emerging global trade dynamics. Nonetheless, some experts assert that the ongoing tariff disparities could encourage further trade relations between Africa and China, allowing Africa to diversify its economic dependencies. Ambassador Hu Changchun of China commented on the importance of enhancing trade ties with Africa, highlighting Beijing's commitment to creating development opportunities across the continent, according to South China Morning Post.

The African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), which allows eligible sub-Saharan African countries duty-free access to the U.S. market, looms large as it approaches a potential expiration in 2025. Experts have voiced concerns that changes in the U.S. trade policy under the Trump administration could have dire consequences for African nations that depend on the AGOA's benefits. The imposition of new tariffs, particularly affecting countries like Lesotho, could lead to job losses and increased economic vulnerability, stressing the importance of negotiating the future of AGOA to safeguard trade relations, according to India Times.

With AGOA providing preferential access for over 1,800 products, the uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy signals a need for African economies to strengthen their regional trade networks. Economists suggest that Africa’s reliance on U.S. markets can be mitigated through enhanced intra-African trade, leveraging agreements such as the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). This strategy is crucial for ensuring economic resilience, especially in the face of shifting global trade dynamics. Tsonam Akpeloo from the Association of Ghana Industries emphasized a need for collective action among African nations to secure favorable trade conditions moving forward, highlighting the importance of diversifying economic partnerships, according to India Times.