• President Trump threatens tariffs and sanctions unless Mexico delivers owed water to Texas.
• Mexico acknowledges shortcomings due to severe drought but plans immediate water deliveries to Texas farmers.
• The 1944 treaty mandates that Mexico send 1.75 million acre-feet of water from the Rio Grande to the U.S. every five years.

In a significant escalation of the ongoing U.S.-Mexico water dispute, President Donald Trump has threatened to impose additional tariffs and sanctions on Mexico if it fails to fulfill its commitments under a 1944 water-sharing treaty. In a series of posts on Truth Social, Trump accused Mexico of "stealing the water from Texas farmers," asserting that the country owes Texas approximately 1.3 million acre-feet of water. Amid allegations of treaty violations, he warned that the U.S. would escalate consequences until Mexico complies, declaring, “We will keep escalating consequences, including tariffs, and maybe even sanctions.”

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum responded to the escalating rhetoric by confirming that Mexico is indeed behind on its water deliveries due to prolonged drought conditions affecting the Rio Grande basin. However, she stated that her government would facilitate an immediate water delivery to Texas farmers, saying, "For Texas farmers who are requesting water, there will be an immediate delivery of a certain number of millions of cubic meters that can be provided according to the water availability in the Rio Grande."

Under the 1944 treaty, Mexico is obligated to deliver 1.75 million acre-feet of water to the U.S. every five years, while the U.S. commits to sending 1.5 million acre-feet of water annually to Mexico from the Colorado River. Currently, with the treaty cycle ending this October, Mexico has reportedly sent less than 30% of the required water, leading to heightened tensions between the nations. Trump's administration halted water shipments to Tijuana last month in response to Mexico’s failure to meet its treaty obligations, further straining relations.

The Biden administration recently rejected Mexico's request for special water deliveries from the Colorado River, citing ongoing shortfalls in Mexico's water deliveries as a significant issue that is "decimating American agriculture," particularly impacting farmers in regions like the Rio Grande valley.

While the challenges posed by climate change and drought dominate the discussion, Trump's threats of tariffs are reminders of the complexities intertwined in this water-sharing agreement, and as Sheinbaum noted, "If there’s no water, how do you deliver it?" Mexico has since submitted a proposal aimed at addressing the water-sharing issue and in hopes of reaching a mutually beneficial agreement.

The ongoing situation highlights the vulnerability of agriculture in both countries amid climatic and political pressures and raises concerns over effective resource management and cooperation between neighbors. For further details regarding the treaty and ongoing negotiations, refer to Reuters.