Key takeaways:

• The asteroid 2024 YR4 has a rising chance of hitting the Moon, now estimated at 3.8%.
• NASA has ruled out any significant threat of the asteroid impacting Earth in December 2032.
• The asteroid measures between 53 and 67 meters, warranting attention for planetary defense.

A massive asteroid known as 2024 YR4, which previously raised alarms due to its potential to hit Earth, now poses a newly increased chance of impacting the Moon. New data from the James Webb Space Telescope indicates the probability of a lunar collision is currently at 3.8%, up from 1.7% earlier estimates, according to BBC and The Jakarta Post.

Originally detected with an alarming 3.1% chance of hitting Earth, this risk has since been reduced to a negligible 0.004%. Consequently, efforts to monitor the asteroid have shifted focus to its lunar potential. NASA underscores that there remains a 96.2% probability that the asteroid will miss the Moon entirely.

Richard Moissl, head of the European Space Agency's planetary defense office, elaborated on the implications of the new data, noting that the asteroid measures between 53 and 67 meters in size, comparable to a 10 to 15-storey building. This demands vigilance, as surpassing the 50-meter threshold calls for planetary defense considerations.

While no immediate plans for asteroid deflection are underway, should the asteroid maintain a substantial threat, strategies would involve potential missions to deflect its trajectory. Notably, NASA's recent DART mission successfully changed the path of a harmless asteroid, signaling the agency's capability to respond to such threats.

The possibility of a lunar impact is of significant interest to scientists. “A Moon hit would be a great experiment and a perfect opportunity,” stated Professor Mark Burchell of the University of Kent. Predictive modelling suggests that a collision could yield invaluable observational data that would aid planetary defense initiatives.

In the coming weeks, the James Webb Space Telescope will conduct additional observations of 2024 YR4, accumulating further insights into this noteworthy celestial body.

For more detailed information on this developing story, visit SCMP.