Key Takeaways:

• Gold prices have surged to record highs, driven by geopolitical uncertainties and trade tensions.
• The Gold Traders Association has raised its 2025 price forecast to $3,400 an ounce, up from $3,200.
• Analysts warn of a potential 38% price drop over the next five years due to increasing supply and market corrections.

The recent Gold Traders Association (GTA) has revised its gold price forecast for 2025 to $3,400 per ounce, reflecting an uptick from a previous estimate of $3,200. On the domestic front, gold prices have ascended to 48,650 baht per baht-weight, and GTA President Jitti Tangsithpakdi predicts the local benchmark could surpass 50,000 baht per baht-weight by the second quarter of 2025. This time of high demand for safe-haven assets is partly due to the escalating geopolitical tensions and uncertainties surrounding forthcoming tariffs from the U.S.

As of March 28, gold had reached an unprecedented high of $3,086.21, prompting investors to seek refuge in the metal amid fears of intensifying trade disputes and economic slowdown. According to Reuters, analysts argue that various factors—including uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariffs and anticipated interest rate cuts—are contributing to gold's robust performance. Capital.com’s Kyle Rodda remarked, “Gold has the wind at its back at the moment,” suggesting the ongoing market conditions are favorable for further increases.

Despite the optimism, long-term analyses provide a more sobering outlook. Jon Mills, an analyst at Morningstar, forecasts a significant downturn in gold prices over the next five years, anticipating a decline to around $1,820 an ounce. This represents a potential 38% drop from recent highs, driven by increased supply dynamics as more producers enter the market in response to current profitability. Mills indicated that gold mining activity has surged amid high prices, and he anticipates greater recycling of gold, further leveling the playing field. He expressed caution regarding current bullish projections, emphasizing a potential market correction ahead.

Overall, while gold presently remains a popular choice among investors seeking stability amid volatility, the industry's trends indicate a complex future. The ongoing dichotomy between immediate surges and longer-term pressures necessitates a careful approach for investors watching the evolving landscape of gold pricing. Analysts recommend maintaining awareness of macroeconomic indicators and geopolitical developments that could sway gold prices significantly moving forward.

For more detailed insights, visit the full articles on Bangkok Post, Reuters, and Business Insider.