Key Takeaways:

• Proposed foreign aid cuts could lead to an estimated 2.9 million HIV-related deaths and up to 10.8 million new infections by 2030.
• A collective reduction in international funding by major countries threatens decades of progress against HIV/AIDS.
• Regions like sub-Saharan Africa are likely to be hit hardest, reversing gains made in health interventions.

Proposed cuts to global foreign aid, including significant reductions from the United States and other countries, could lead to dire ramifications in the fight against HIV/AIDS, with a new study published in The Lancet HIV estimating that 2.9 million children and adults could die from HIV-related health issues by 2030. The study indicates a troubling resurgence of the HIV epidemic with projections suggesting that up to 10.8 million new infections could occur in the coming years.

The modeling study authors, which comprise experts from the Burnet Institute in Melbourne and the World Health Organization's (WHO) Department of Global HIV, have identified that international funding has been crucial in reducing HIV transmissions and deaths globally. However, recent plans announced by the U.S., U.K., France, Germany, and the Netherlands, which together account for over 90% of global funding, could entail cuts ranging from 8% to 70% between 2025 and 2026.

Dr. Debra ten Brink, co-lead author of the study, stated, "The United States has historically been the largest contributor to global efforts to treat and prevent HIV, but the current cuts to PEPFAR and USAID-supported programs have already disrupted vital HIV services." Since launch in 2003, PEPFAR has invested approximately $100 billion into the global HIV/AIDS response, saving millions of lives, yet its funding has recently been threatened by pauses initiated by the Trump administration.

The researchers warn that reductions in funding could have catastrophic consequences, causing a possible increase in HIV-related deaths reaching between 770,000 and 2.9 million by 2030. Regions hard-hit, particularly sub-Saharan Africa, could see major setbacks in health interventions such as the distribution of condoms and preventive drugs, exacerbating the crisis among vulnerable populations including children, men who have sex with men, and people who inject drugs. In a grim forewarning, Dr. Rowan Martin-Hughes, another co-author, emphasized, "Decades of progress to treat and prevent HIV could be unravelled."

The current situation highlights the urgent need for a reassessment of donor commitments, as a cutback in international aid would not only threaten progress against HIV/AIDS but could also revert infection rates and mortality to levels unseen since the early 2000s. Experts across the humanitarian sector have consistently called for a reconsideration of these funding cuts, warning that the reinstatement of lifesaving services is imperative. "Without funding, millions will die and the global AIDS pandemic will resurge," cautioned Winnie Byanyima, executive director of UNAIDS, echoing the sentiments of the research team.

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