Key Takeaways:

• President Trump declines to predict a recession this year during interviews.
• Commerce Secretary Lutnick firmly states no recession is anticipated in America.
• Tariffs imposed on Mexico, Canada, and China have led to market turmoil and mixed economic signals.

In recent interviews, President Donald Trump refrained from ruling out the possibility of a recession in 2025, attributing the uncertainty to his administration's ongoing economic adjustments. Speaking on Fox News, Trump commented, “I hate to predict things like that. There is a period of transition because what we’re doing is very big—we’re bringing wealth back to America.” He emphasized that while current economic policies are significant, realizing their full benefits may take time.

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, however, expressed a much more optimistic outlook, stating emphatically on NBC's Meet the Press that “There’s going to be no recession in America.” His remarks starkly contrast with growing economic concerns reflected in recent stock market performances, notably marked by a weekly drop of over 3% in the S&P 500, reported as the worst weekly performance since September.

Following last week’s imposition of 25 percent tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada as well as increased tariffs on Chinese imports, uncertainty has permeated financial markets. This volatility stems not only from the tariffs but also from the mixed economic indicators, such as a projected 2.4% decline in real GDP growth for the first quarter of 2025 according to the Atlanta Federal Reserve.

While Trump continues to assert the long-term benefits of his economic agenda, experts are voicing concerns. As outlined by Goldman Sachs, the likelihood of a recession has increased from 15% to 20% in the coming year. In contrast, Lutnick suggested that uncertainties would dissipate as the administration’s policies take root, reinforcing his belief that economic growth would follow.

The dynamic surrounding Trump's trade policies, which have seen fluctuating tariff rates and targeted sectors, continues to be a focal point for both investors and economists. Despite ongoing fears, the administration remains steadfast in its prediction of economic recovery.