• Asteroid 2024 YR4, designated a "city-killer," has an increased impact probability of 2.2% by December 2032.
• China is establishing a planetary defense team in response to rising asteroid threats.
• The European Space Agency is utilizing the James Webb Space Telescope to gather more data on 2024 YR4.
• Historical comparisons raise alarm over potential local devastation if the asteroid strikes.

In a matter of weeks, concerns over the asteroid 2024 YR4 have escalated as scientists estimate that the chances of it colliding with Earth have risen significantly. Originally detected shortly after Christmas 2024, the asteroid was assessed by NASA to have a 1.3% impact probability, which has now increased to approximately 2.2%, according to recent reports from the South China Morning Post.

The European Space Agency (ESA) and NASA are keenly observing this potential "city-killer," which measures between 40 to 90 meters in diameter and is projected to approach Earth again in December 2032. Even a localized impact could be catastrophic, analogous to historical events such as the Tunguska Event in 1908 that caused widespread destruction over a vast area due to a similar-sized asteroid collision. Current risk assessments place 2024 YR4 at the top of ESA’s asteroid risk list, giving it a Level 3 rating on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale, designed to gauge the impact risk of near-Earth objects.

Given the slim probability of an actual impact, scientists are actively working to refine their estimates using state-of-the-art astronomical instruments. The James Webb Space Telescope is set to perform detailed observations of 2024 YR4 to ascertain its size and trajectory with unprecedented accuracy. These observations are crucial since the asteroid's characteristics significantly influence the potential impact outcome and response strategies. This initiative is underscored by plans from nations including China, which has initiated its own planetary defense program aimed at monitoring and creating early warning systems for threatening asteroids, as reported by India Times.

As of now, astronomers predict that 2024 YR4 will most likely pass without incident, but monitoring will continue. The risk of localized destruction persists, with estimated damages being potentially severe for any region the asteroid might impact. For perspective, a direct hit by 2024 YR4 could result in explosive energy output comparable to more than eight megatons of TNT. This extensive destruction potential places urgency on international collaborations—most notably, China is ramping up efforts to enhance its surveillance and response capabilities, as highlighted in a ABC News report.

While public apprehension grows regarding the asteroid's potential threat, scientists maintain a degree of optimism, likely reassured by historical precedents that show many initially calculated risks have been significantly downgraded as observational data improves. By maintaining their vigilance and maximizing technology-driven detection capabilities, the global scientific community aims to navigate the precarious uncertainties posed by near-Earth objects like 2024 YR4.