As Belarus prepares for its presidential election this Sunday, Alexander Lukashenko appears poised to secure a seventh term, extending his authoritarian rule that has spanned nearly 30 years. This election, termed a "ritual for a dictator" by critics, is largely seen as a formality. Notably, Lukashenko’s regime has shifted the election date from August to the colder month of January, aiming to minimize the likelihood of public protests that characterized previous elections, especially the 2020 election, which was marred by accusations of fraud and widespread unrest.

Since the 2020 election, where Lukashenko claimed victory with 80% of the vote, the situation in Belarus has drastically deteriorated. Following the controversial results, mass protests erupted, leading to a brutal crackdown that resulted in over 65,000 arrests, reports AP. Critics, including exiled opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, have declared that the upcoming vote will be a farce, as many key opponents remain imprisoned or have fled abroad. Rights activists estimate there are about 1,300 political prisoners in Belarus today.

Lukashenko's ties to Russia have deepened over the years, especially as he faces international criticism. With military support during the 2022 Ukraine invasion and hosting Russian tactical nuclear weapons, analysts argue that Belarus is increasingly becoming a satellite state of Moscow. The latest treaty signed with Vladimir Putin indicates further military collaboration, prompting fears about Belarus' sovereignty and its implications for regional stability. The deployment of Russian hypersonic missiles is also anticipated in the near future, marking a significant escalation of military cooperation between the two nations.

Despite the apparent stability under Lukashenko's rule, experts caution that a lack of public dissent does not equate to acceptance. Political analyst Valery Karbalevich points out the ineffectiveness of mass protests during the freezing January weather when the elections take place. Amidst this backdrop, any hope for genuine democratic progress seems increasingly bleak. HuffPost observes that Lukashenko's regime has been characterized by ruthless suppression of dissent, making the path for any future opposition fraught with danger.

Thus, as Lukashenko prepares for yet another term in office, the international community watches closely. With ongoing sanctions and diplomatic pressures expected, there's a growing concern about the future of democracy in Belarus and the continued implications of Lukashenko's alliance with Russia.

For further details, visit more in-depth reports from Time, South China Morning Post, and Newsweek.