Republican leaders have reinitiated efforts aimed at excluding individuals residing in the U.S. illegally from the Census count utilized for determining congressional representation. This development has gained momentum with four Republican state attorneys general from Kansas, Louisiana, Ohio, and West Virginia filing a lawsuit to challenge the upcoming 2030 Census, even before President Donald Trump's new term officially commenced. Upon returning to power, Trump promptly issued an executive order that rescinded a prior Biden administration directive, indicating potential new strategies to influence the demographic data collected for the Census.

Trump’s prior attempts during his first term to amend the 2020 Census by introducing a citizenship question had encountered significant opposition. Following the Supreme Court's rejection of this initiative, Trump had instead directed that citizenship data be gleaned from existing administrative records. In light of this, Republican theorists have suggested that shifting the basis for congressional districting from total population to citizen voting-age population could yield advantages in representation for Republicans and non-Hispanic whites.Source: Time

The constitutional Fourteenth Amendment mandates counting “the whole number of persons in each state” when apportioning congressional seats. The Census data not only pertains to the allocation of representatives but also influences the distribution of approximately $2.8 trillion in federal funds for infrastructure and healthcare among other areas. The Republican lawsuit underscores claims that Ohio and West Virginia lost representation in the previous Census due to the inclusion of undocumented immigrants. This litigation aims to reshape the counting mechanism for the 2030 Census, asserting that it could result in further loss of congressional seats and electoral influence for these states.

Nonetheless, projections from Election Data Services do not indicate a loss of seats for these states in the forthcoming Census; instead, the reports suggest that states led by Democrats, such as California, New York, and Illinois, might face a decrease in representation. Critics have argued that a citizenship question could deter participation from immigrant communities, thereby compromising the accuracy of the Census data.Source: AP News

With the potential for a new Republican administration, experts predict that a Trump-led Census Bureau may implement significant changes to recent demographic methods established under Biden. These include possible alterations to race and ethnicity questions, which previously were formatted separately, and the addition of categories such as Middle Eastern and North African. Concerns have also been raised about the ability of the Census Bureau to maintain impartiality, given Trump’s previous strategies to appoint politically aligned personnel during his earlier administration. As Andrew Beveridge, a sociology professor and census expert, noted, “They could easily put in the same type of idiots they put in last time for political purposes.”

The outcome of the pending lawsuit and subsequent policy maneuvers will likely have lasting implications for the representation and allocation of resources across the United States, reshaping the political landscape in the years to come.