India's government is preparing to collaborate with the Trump administration to identify and facilitate the return of approximately 18,000 illegal Indian migrants currently residing in the United States. This initiative signifies New Delhi's willingness to comply with the incoming U.S. president to avert potential trade conflicts. Discussions indicate that the number of undocumented Indian migrants may be higher than reported, highlighting the uncertainty surrounding the issue, as numerous undocumented individuals remain unaccounted for (Source: Times of India, Source: South China Morning Post).

The focus on Indian citizens stems from regions such as Punjab and Gujarat, which are known to have a significant number of undocumented immigrants. As various nations navigate the shifting landscape of U.S. immigration policies under Trump, India aims to mitigate the threats of trade retaliation, which have been a central theme of the Trump administration's agenda.

In exchange for India's cooperation in repatriating illegal migrants, officials hope the Trump administration will safeguard existing legal immigration pathways for Indian citizens, particularly concerning student visas and the H-1B program for skilled workers. Data reveals that Indian nationals constituted nearly 75% of the 386,000 H-1B visas issued in 2023, making these channels vital for many Indian families and professionals seeking opportunities in the U.S.

Any delays in repatriating illegal migrants could adversely impact India's labor agreements with other nations. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s administration has secured various migration partnerships globally, including with countries like Taiwan, Saudi Arabia, and Japan, amidst ongoing job shortages at home.

According to a spokesperson from India's Ministry of External Affairs, “As part of India-US cooperation on migration and mobility, both sides are engaged in a process to deter illegal migration,” emphasizing the mutual interest in creating legal migration avenues. Recent actions, like the deportation of over 100 Indian nationals via a chartered flight, demonstrate this cooperation's tangible outcomes.

Despite being a relatively small contributor to the overall flow of illegal migrants, Indian nationals represent about 3% of illegal crossings documented by U.S. Customs and Border Protection for the fiscal year 2024. However, the proportion of Indian migrants apprehended at the northern U.S. border has notably increased, accounting for nearly 25% of all illegal crossings at that point.

Past estimates from the Department of Homeland Security suggest that around 220,000 unauthorized Indian immigrants were living in the U.S. as of 2022.

This latest development also intersects with broader geopolitical concerns for India, particularly regarding secessionist movements it perceives as threatening, like the Khalistan movement. Officials maintain that some supporters of this movement in the U.S. and Canada may be undocumented immigrants.

While Modi is perceived to enjoy friendly relations with Trump, there is apprehension about unexpected actions from the U.S. president that could provoke a trade war. Trump's past remarks regarding high import duties imposed by India have raised concerns about potential retaliatory measures. As trade negotiations unfold, experts note that immigration presents a more manageable area for India to demonstrate its commitment to cooperation with the Trump administration.

Ultimately, while examining the complexities of illegal immigration and trade relations between these two nations, it remains clear that both sides are motivated to find pragmatic solutions to emerging challenges.

For further details, visit the original articles by the Times of India and the South China Morning Post.