A new study published in The Lancet medical journal estimates that the death toll in Gaza during the first nine months of the war between Israel and Hamas may be around 64,260, significantly higher than the 37,877 reported by the Hamas-run health ministry. This figure represents an estimated 41% underreporting of deaths, which have been a source of intense debate since Israel initiated its military campaign in response to the unprecedented attacks by Hamas on October 7, 2023.

The study, conducted by researchers from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Yale University, and other institutions, utilized a statistical method known as “capture-recapture analysis”. This technique cross-referenced multiple sources, including hospital records, online surveys, and social media obituaries to estimate the death toll as being between 55,298 and 78,525 deaths from traumatic injuries alone, highlighting that 59% of the deceased were women, children, and the elderly.

As of June 30, 2024, the Palestinian health ministry's official statistics indicated a tally of 46,006 deaths, comprising mostly civilians. This discrepancy has raised questions regarding the reliability of the health ministry’s data, particularly as the ongoing violence has compromised the region's healthcare infrastructure. Notably, healthcare facilities have suffered significant damage due to the conflict, which Israel claims is partly due to Hamas utilizing such sites for military operations.

The study acknowledges that the reported figures do not include deaths caused by indirect effects, such as lack of healthcare, starvation, or diseases exacerbated by the conflict’s toll. Zeina Jamaluddine, an epidemiologist and lead author, emphasized that since 10,000 individuals are estimated to be missing under rubble, the total mortality could be considerably higher.

Israel’s response to the report reflects its ongoing contention that it avoids civilian casualties, with Israeli officials asserting that the data cannot be trusted due to historical biases in reporting from Gaza. They maintain that Israel employs extensive measures to minimize harm to civilians during military operations.

As this subject continues to evolve, it remains crucial to stay updated with official statements and independent investigations, given the complex nature of warfare and its vast implications for civilian life. For comprehensive insights, see the full study and reports from VOA News, The Guardian, and Al Jazeera.