A recent study published in The Lancet estimates that the death toll from the ongoing conflict in Gaza may be as much as 64,260, indicating a staggering 41% underreporting of deaths as recorded by local health authorities. The study, conducted by researchers from institutions including the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, closely analyzed data from the war that began following Hamas's attack on Israel on October 7, 2023.

As of June 30, 2024, the Palestinian Ministry of Health had reported 37,877 deaths. However, the recent analysis, using a technique known as capture-recapture, combined various data sources such as ministry records, online surveys, and social media obituaries to produce a more comprehensive estimate of fatalities among the civilian population, which overwhelmingly includes women, children, and elderly individuals. The study estimated that approximately 59% of those killed belonged to these vulnerable groups.

The researchers warned that the figures presented only included direct deaths from traumatic injuries and did not account for those who have died from indirect causes, such as lack of access to healthcare, malnutrition, or as a result of the disarray within Gaza’s health services. The current humanitarian crisis has exacerbated conditions, leading to speculation that true mortality could exceed the study’s findings significantly—the UN estimates around 10,000 people are currently missing and presumed buried under rubble.

Compounding the tragedy, the study noted that the health ministry’s capacity to document deaths effectively has significantly deteriorated as the conflict intensified. The Israeli military has claimed that all measures have been adopted to minimize civilian casualties, and officials have questioned the reliability of figures released by Hamas-run organizations, suggesting that they often "manipulate data." In defense, Yahya Sinwar, a senior Hamas leader, stated previously that the conflict is being waged against aggressors who target innocent lives, further complicating data verification efforts as foreign journalists remain barred from entering Gaza.

As the conflict drags on, both sides continue to argue over casualty figures—a source of intense debate that underscores the broader humanitarian implications. Researchers like Zeina Jamaluddine emphasize the crucial need for accurate reporting and monitoring of casualties to inform both humanitarian efforts and international responses accurately. The full ramifications of this conflict, both in terms of human life and health infrastructure, remain to be seen.

For more information on the research findings, you can read the full study published in The Lancet.