Beijing is facing greater risks of aerial confrontations with the Philippines rather than maritime disputes, according to Hu Bo from the SCSPI.
Hu's analysis points out that Manila has been increasingly aggressive in its actions since China intensified its military activities, especially around Scarborough Shoal.
He expressed concerns about the risks associated with continued aerial provocations and potential responses from China that could lead to grave consequences.
On US military engagements, Hu noted issues of "fatigue and diminished professionalism," raising the likelihood of unintended incidents in the region.
The ongoing tensions in the South China Sea involve multiple nations; while the Philippines challenges China, other claimants like Vietnam may also escalate their actions.